Blue Dogs or other House Democrats who often vote with them are going to account for the vast majority of House Democratic losses this November, which is not a real shocker to anyone following the situation closely…. The House Democratic caucus, whether holding onto a thinner majority or falling into the minority, will be more liberal in the 112th Congress than it is now.
Follow the link for his data.
I do not expect Democrats to lose the majority in the mid-terms. Though that Democratic majority will almost certainly be just by our fingernails I also expect Republican base demoralization brought on by the dashing of foolishly hyperbolized expectations coupled with the brushing off of Blue Dogs will prevent this slim majority from anxiously nudging rightward.
Pelosi's House has been the most progressive force in these last two years and I expect it will remain so, though reform of the filibuster rule would make the Senate (which I am even more confident Democrats will retain control of) a worthier partner.
If the House were to be regained by a Republican squeaker, given their overall disarray, their demographic nightmare, their inability to implement any of their actual agenda given the other branches, and the likely irresistibility of self-marginalizing histrionic scandal-mongering via subpoena and tin-earned government shut-down dramas as their only avenue for venting their white-racist greed-head bully-manchild ids I personally doubt this slim majority of theirs would survive the re-election of President Obama in 2012 (no, Virginia, we are not actually going to elect Sarah Palin President, and the whole Republican field amounts to Sarah Palin upon closer scrutiny).
It is amusing in an annoying sort of way to contemplate how many progressives might find themselves liking Obama much more in such an atmosphere, since he would no doubt become more media confrontational and make more ready recourse to Executive Orders under such circumstances (and thus provide more occasions for the more symbolic, rather than substantial reformist accomplishments, which some would-be radicals seem so to pine for).
No doubt the next two years will provide more experience to nudge the left Netroots still further up the learning curve they have been rather convulsively scaling these last two years, adjusting to the difference between full-throated opposition to Christian talibanist fascists in power and assuming responsibility for compromised reformist governance under ugly constraints.
No comments:
Post a Comment