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Sunday, November 02, 2008

"Late Undecideds" = Dumb People (UPDATED)

I mean, at this point? Who's still undecided? You're either just dumb or dishonest -- that is to say, too racist to vote for Obama but too realistic to admit to such a thing in public or even completely to yourself. That's why I expect undecideds to break for McCain. It's probably enough of a factor to make Tuesday more interesting than those who expect an Obama blowout called before you clear the dinner table, but I don't think it's remotely enough to secure McCain a surprise victory, given the larger Republican negatives this cycle and the ridiculously bad campaign that endlessly exacerbated them.



UPDATED: My partner Eric thinks late undecideds will break for Obama rather than McCain because they'll want to feel like they're voting for a winner rather than for a loser. Eric may be right, it's not something I'd considered, but it has a certain plausibility. Be that as it may, we are united in the view that so-called late undecideds are, in general, dumb as a bag of hair.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Re: your update, that's been demonstrated empirically. It's also a problem because some candidates who get attention from the media early in the election (thus creating the expectation that they will do well) earn a following that they don't really deserve. Thus Clinton and Obama were shoo-ins, while Kucinich never had a chance.

BTW, you know who has written extensively on this topic? Yudkowsky. :)

Dale Carrico said...

I'd prefer to read people who have written extensively on the topic who aren't also would be gurus at the head of Robot Cults.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I know. Just thought it interesting since the topic came up.

Also, according to USA Today, via DK:

"One other set of numbers to consider: Gallup says that when it allocates the 4% of likely voters who either had no opinion or would not choose between Obama and McCain, it estimates the candidates' current support levels would most likely be 55% for Obama, 44% for McCain."

Then again, 538 ranks Gallup pretty low among pollsters.

Dale Carrico said...

No worries, the comment was made with a twinkle in my eye, not a recriminatory smirk. Btw, I've been obsessively following 538 and electoral-vote for months now. How sweet it will be to set that compulsion aside and return to Something Awful and the Onion and io9 like I used to for my compulsive first-thing click each morning before work!

jimf said...

> we are united in the view that so-called late
> undecideds are, in general, dumb as a bag of hair.

Hair. . . Family Guy. . .

Do you like Cool Hwip on your pumpkin pie?

Do you say "Cool Hwip"?

http://www.hulu.com/watch/11473
/family-guy-cool-whip

Anonymous said...

hah, yeah. Interesting people sometimes come out of nowhere, and Nate Silver is one of those surprises this year.